A Dual Threat: Potential Excessive Rain in Brazil and Dryness in Argentina [Video]

The majority of Brazil has seen below-average precipitation as it nears the end of its first-crop corn and soybean planting season. 

According to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil soybean production for the 2024/2025 marketing year is forecast at 169 million metric tons, up 16 million metric tons from last year. 

David Tolleris, meteorologist and owner of wxrisk.com, said that a wet pattern is predicted for parts of Brazil in the next two weeks. He said the second week shows northern São Paulo receiving up to 12 inches of rain, according to the Global Forecast System.

“That’s too much rain in one week,” Tolleris said. “We also see 8-inch rains in Mato Grosso and Goiás.” 

Tolleris said Brazil has been drier than normal the past few weeks, and attributes the predicted shift in precipitation to a weather cycle called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). 

“The MJO has …